31 July 2004

A New Political Barometer

The Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 Page takes a new slant on opinion analysis. It tallies a state for red or for blue based on the results of the most recent polls and awards that states electoral votes to the Democrat or the Republican based on that poll. It also nuances the results, plainly displaying whether a state is strongly or weakly for the given candidate.

It tells a very fascinating story. As we were all clearly reminded in the 2000 election, the popular numbers are of secondary importants. It's the electoral numbers that matter. I've found it helpful to envision the presidential election not as one big election, but as fifty-one (counting the Federal City) state-level elections held simultaneously.

I'm not too thrilled with the electoral college, myself, but until someone comes up with a better plan, man, this is the shape of the playing field.

The current tally has Kerry 289, Bush 232, 2 states dead ties with a total of 17 between them (MN, IA).

And this site goes on the Links list.

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